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Realistic Goals Are Best: My 2024 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Recap

I was so nervous for the Leadville Trail 100 MTB this year. Would the climbs be too hard? Would I succumb to the high elevation? To ensure success, I set a realistic time goal and stuck to a super conservative pacing plan. In the end, I finished, but it wasn’t easy!

Written by: Bruce Lin

Published on:

Posted in:Features

That's my "I can't believe I finished" face.

My Leadville Recap Video:

This was my first time doing Leadville. Despite getting plenty of good tips from past Leadville finishers, I was still venturing into the unknown, and that was scary. I laid awake at night imagining all the things that might go wrong. I worried about the pain and suffering I was sure to endure. More than anything, I was afraid I’d crack on the big climbs or from the high elevation. My nerves got so bad that I felt physically ill. 

To calm myself down, I did a lot of “meditating.” I’m not spiritual, but ever since my middle school spelling bee days, I’ve relied on manipulating my breathing to manage my anxiety. I like to do box breathing on the floor with my eyes closed. It works! I used box breathing at the start line too, because that's when my nerves always peak. 

There were two more things I did that eased my mind in the lead-up to the race:

  • I set a realistic and achievable time goal (10 hours) 
  • I made a simple and conservative pacing plan

In the end, I finished the Leadville Trail 100 MTB with a time of 9:36:13 and I was able to stick to my pacing plan for the entire race. For me, that’s success! 

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I Waited 15 Years to do Leadville

Race across the sky

When I was in college, I watched a film called Race Across the Sky about the Leadville Trail 100. I was a fairly green cyclist at the time and this movie was one of the most inspiring cycling documentaries I’d ever seen.

A normie like me might never experience the sport’s grandest pursuits (like the Tour de France), but Leadville is something attainable. As a Coloradan, it's also in my own backyard. For nearly 15 years, I toyed with the idea of doing Leadville. However, I was always too scared to actually commit. 

Why was I scared?

Well, I’ve never been the greatest climber. I’m not terrible, but in fast group rides and races, I’m often the first to get spat off the back on any climb longer than 3-5 minutes. Leadville’s biggest climb, Columbine, will take most amateurs 1-3 hours to complete. 

Leadville 100 MTB Columbine climb

Columbine was my biggest concern. Photo: Pete McBride Photography

Not only is the Columbine climb huge, but it goes up above 12,000 feet in elevation. I’ve never been good at altitude either. When I was younger, I was always the first kid to tap out on ski trips from exhaustion, headaches, and nausea. In a clique full of athletic Colorado teenagers, this made me the butt of many jokes.

I often thought, “I’ll just do Leadville when I’m fitter, better, and faster.” That was my excuse — I'll wait until I'm ready. Coming into this season, I still didn’t feel as fit or fast as I wanted to be. But I haven't felt fit or fast enough once in the last 5 years. So how long was I going to wait? Until I turned 40? 50? 60!? 

Last winter, I decided to finally stop being a coward and put my name in the lottery to let fate decide for me. When I was selected, I was terrified but excited. 

Developing My Leadville Pacing Plan 

Leadville 100 MTB high altitudeLetting myself get dropped with a mouth full of Swedish fish. Go slow and eat constantly was the plan. 

I used the Leadville Race Series Time Predictor to estimate what sort of finish time I might be capable of. About a month before Leadville, I’d gotten my teeth kicked in at Silver Rush 50, which sucked, but it gave me a time I could use. According to the Time Predictor, Silver Rush finish times provide “extremely high” accuracy when it comes to predicting Leadville finish times. 

The “Race Median Multiplier” for Silver Rush to Leadville is 1.7-1.8x. To determine my Leadville target this year, I multiplied my 5:37:17 Silver Rush finish time by those two numbers to get a finish window of 9:33:22-10:07:06. To make things easier for myself, I decided to use a nice round number — 10 hours — as my goal time. 

This is likely on the slow end of what I'm capable of, but I chose it on purpose. Leadville is over twice as long as Silver Rush, so there’s a lot of opportunity for things to go wrong. Like I said, Leadville was stressing me out and keeping me awake at night. Making my time goal more attainable alleviated A LOT of my performance anxiety.  

I knew the biggest factor in my success would be pacing. Riding at 10,000+ feet, I can’t recover from hard efforts. At Silver Rush, I felt completely blown up 20 miles in. If that happened at Leadville, which is 105 miles long, I’d be screwed. 

Elevation altitude power zone loss chart

I crunched a few numbers to figure out what I needed to do. At Unbound Gravel this year, I had a normalized power of 211 W for 12 hours (the elevation of Emporia, Kansas is about ~1,100 feet). Using a basic chart, I guessed that I’d lose about 13-20% of that power while riding up at 10,000-12,000 feet. So ideally, if I produce a comparable performance at Leadville, my normalized power will be around 170-180 W. 

170 W is essentially what I do on all of my easy endurance/recovery rides. It’s almost comically easy. I realized that I didn’t need to stare at my power numbers the whole time. All I had to do was ride as if it were an easy weekend cruise. It should feel TOO EASY in the early miles. 

Leadville 100 10 hour power numbersFor the first 40 miles, I ignored everyone passing me and just focused on riding my own race. I’d check in on my power numbers from time to time to make sure I was in range. If I ever saw power numbers over 200 W, I’d back off. If I found myself mashing the pedals or breathing hard at all, I'd back off. I went into the Columbine climb at ~mile 45 feeling super fresh. The race didn’t feel hard until I hit the steep goat trail at the very top.

By the second half, my perceived effort started ramping up significantly, but I was able to maintain the same power numbers. Even when I felt at my absolute limit in the final few miles, I was hitting my numbers. In the end, my normalized power for my race was 179 W. Consistency was my key to success. 

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My Leadville Trail 100 Highlights

Powerline Descent

Leadville Trail 100 MTB Powerline descent

The bottom of Powerline is terrifyingly steep and fast!

The top half of Powerline is rocky, loose, and rutted out. I LOVED this section. Since I started in the Orange Corral, there was plenty of traffic here. If you’re proficient on a MTB, it’s easy to pass a ton of riders here. I just dove into the rough and loose sections that everyone was avoiding and blasted past people with very little drama. (If you’re not a confident descender, this might be the WORST section for you.)

The bottom half is super steep and requires a lot of confidence to go fast. I could actually smell people cooking their brakes here! Again, I was able to make a few easy passes by hopping over the ruts onto lines other riders were avoiding. 

I know people say Leadville “isn’t a mountain bike race,” but Powerline is definitely the type of terrain where a mountain bike excels. For me, having a full-suspension bike with a dropper post here was a massive advantage. I had more confidence and traction and used it to my advantage. 

Twin Lakes 

Leadville Trail 100 Twin lakes aid

This was the biggest aid station and the vibes here were awesome. There are so many people here cheering you on! I met my wife here to get fresh bottles and more gels. When I stopped, random strangers held my bike for me, took my trash, and encouraged me on. 

On my way out, the pros started coming the other direction. I got to see many of the top riders that I follow — Keegan Swenson, Lachlan Morton, Dylan Johnson, Hannah Otto, and Sarah Sturm — in action. Watching the pro race unfold might be one of the coolest things about Leadville. Seeing Keegan off the front, descending at warp speed in his drop bars was super inspiring. 

Columbine Climb (the Smooth Section)

Leadville Trail 100 Columbine climb

When I started up Columbine, my conservative pacing plan started to pay off. I was still averaging around 170 W, just as I had since the start of the race, but suddenly I was passing a lot of riders. I recognized several riders who had passed me much earlier in the race. I was relaxed and happy while many around me seemed to be suffering. Eventually it got much harder (more on that below), but on the early smooth lower sections of the climb, I felt like the smartest rider around. 

Columbine Descent

Leadville Trail 100 Columbine descent

After collecting myself for a few minutes at the top of Columbine, I started bombing back down. The descent itself is fun, but the best part is seeing all the other riders on their way up. Everyone is cheering for each other here. There aren’t many races where you get to experience something like this with your competitors. It’s unique, thrilling, and emotionally gratifying.  

Powerline Climb 

Leadville Trial 100 Powerline climb

One of my personal goals was to clean the full Powerline climb on the way back. Every TPC co-worker I know who has finished Leadville has successfully cleaned Powerline. I didn’t want to break the streak! 

This was HARD. The beginning of the climb is the toughest, with steep pitches that can exceed 20%. It required complete focus to keep the pedals turning while also choosing the ideal line to prevent slipping out or getting caught in a rut. I concentrated on breathing out forcefully to clear lactate from my legs and just held on.

The top half is a lot rockier but less steep, so I was able to relax a little. It started raining heavily, then hailing, but I kept going. Eventually, I made it to the top of Powerline without dabbing or walking. This was my proudest achievement of the race!

Sugarloaf Descent

Leadville Trail 100 Sugarloaf descent

Sugarloaf is pretty rocky. Just like the Powerline descent, this is where good mountain bikers can take advantage. Many riders were slowly picking their way down, so I attacked and made a lot of passes. I felt like a superhero! 

This descent was super fun, and attacking it gave me a good gap going into the big road climb to the top of Carter Summit. I rode this climb pretty relaxed and I was halfway up by the time the riders I’d dropped on the descent were able to catch back up.  

My Leadville Trail 100 Lowlights

Columbine Climb (the Goat Trail)

Leadville trail 100 Columbine climb goat trail

The very top of Columbine becomes much narrower, looser, rougher, and steeper than the rest of the climb. Most refer to this section as “the goat trail.” I was planning to walk the majority of this to save my legs, but with a line of riders behind me, I felt compelled to stay on my bike for longer. Dumb, Bruce, dumb! I should have stuck to the pacing plan. 

I pedaled up some seriously steep pitches that dropped my cadence down into the 40-50 RPM range. This blew up my legs a bit. When I finally got off to walk, I felt it. Being above 12,000 feet definitely didn’t help things. I started feeling lightheaded and nauseous and I struggled to push my bike up the hill. 

When I hit the turn-around at the top, I stopped by the trash cans for a few minutes to vomit up a gel and some liquids I’d consumed just a few minutes earlier. Embarrassed and disgusted with myself, I downed a Coke to wash the taste out of my mouth and headed back down. 

Twin Lakes to Pipeline to Outward Bound

Leadville Trail 100 headwind Coke vomit

I threw up right after my wife took this photo.

I hate headwinds. I hate headwinds more than big climbs. So of course, after hitting the biggest climb of the day, I rode straight into a brutal headwind. Headwinds are common on the return journey, so it’s always good to ride with a group. I ended up with a decent group and we took turns drafting, but it was still surprisingly hard. 

I had a headache and some nausea after Columbine, so I was struggling to eat and drink. This was a serious low point. I was hitting my numbers, but the perceived effort seemed massive. I actually worried that I might blow up and miss my goal time. 

My wife had taken the shuttle from Twin Lakes so she could meet me at the Outward Bound aid station. I had already been dropped by my group so I rolled in alone. She gave me a coke, and after slamming it down, I immediately threw it back up. A young kid was watching me and his horrified face will be etched into my memory forever. I ate a gel and rode away thinking I was cooked.

Fortunately, the gel kicked in 10 minutes later and I felt revived. My headache and nausea faded just in time for me to clean Powerline. Phew! 

The Boulevard to the Finish

Leadville trail 100 boulevard to finish

I'm dead...

The Boulevard is the final loose and rocky climb that comes a few miles before the finish line. Many racers attack this climb to gain separation from their competitors before the final drag into town. Me… well, I completely forgot this climb existed. When I turned left onto it and realized what was happening, I literally yelled, “F*** this!” This final climb broke my spirit. 

The climb is followed by a couple miles of false flat dirt roads. I felt like I was riding sooo slow here. Many riders who I’d passed earlier on a descent caught up and passed me back. A spectator recognized me and called out, and all I could say was, “I’m dead.” The last paved stretch to the finish line was a huge struggle. I’m thankful this climb came at the very end. Any earlier and I would have cracked completely!

Final Thoughts

Leadville Trail 100 Race result

9:36:13 is likely the best I could have expected on the day. I’m proud of how consistent I stayed throughout the race. The three dark moments I highlighted above were the only ones I experienced. Despite suffering greatly in those moments, I kept pedaling and hit the numbers I planned to hit. Overall, I had a great race. 

I do think a sub-9-hour finish is possible for me with more training. I need to do more climbing in the months leading up to Leadville. I also likely need to spend more time at altitude to get over the nausea that nearly derailed my race this year.

I think I'll need to add ~15 W to my normalized power to make a sub-9 finish comfortably within reach. I've hit those sorts of power numbers before my son was born (and I took 3 years off training and racing). He’s 5 now, and as he gets older and more independent, I get more time to ride my bike. Maybe next year is my year! But I’ll let the lottery decide for me. 

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